Identifying False Conspiracy Theories
Conspiracy theories can seem convincing, especially when shared by celebrities or when supported by what seems like damning evidence. However, there are a few simple steps to prevent being fooled.
Correlation does not always = causation
Conspiracy theories tend to attempt to connect different occurrences that may not otherwise be related, pinning one as the reason for the other. For example, in the conspiracy theory that vaccines cause autism in children, one of the main points was that some children developed autism after receiving the vaccine at a young age --- these events were correlated. However, signs of autism tend to develop at a young age, around the time that children would be receiving vaccines. It is extremely likely that these children would have developed autism, vaccine or not, and the timing of both events just happened to coincide with each other.
Is the source reliable?
Going back to this case of autism and vaccines in children, the driving force behind the conspiracy theory were parents who believed their children developed autism as a result of vaccination. Eventually, political leaders such as former President Donald Trump began sharing this claim. There were even a few studies supporting this claim --- but they were critically flawed. These studies were widely refuted and far more extensive studies were conducted that displayed no correlation between vaccines and autism, according to the CDC. Conspiracy theory information is typically not clear in its source, is shared only by self-proclaimed experts, and independent fact-checking websites do not support the source. Furthermore, the author will probably demonize the one 'behind' the conspiracy theory and emotionally present their information as the only truth, raising more questions than answers.
Ratios are everything!
Millions upon millions of children in the United States have been vaccinated. However, the CDC states that only about 1.85% of all children aged 8 years old in the US have autism. If most children receive vaccinations yet only a small percentage develop autism, is it really vaccinations that cause this disorder? Think about Trump's claims that the election was rigged because poll watchers weren't allowed to watch people vote... even so, how many people would really be able to send in fraudulent votes with all of the other precautions in place? If some really were able to send in fraudulent votes, would it really be enough to change the results of the election? Probably not, especially as if there was voter fraud, it likely would have occurred equally on both sides. If you hear something that attributes a large-scale phenomenon to small percentage of occurrences, then it's probably just correlation, not causation.
